If you’ve been watching the housing market, you’ve probably noticed a shift in tone. The question on many people’s minds right now is simple: Should I wait to buy or sell? As we enter the second half of 2025, here’s what I’m seeing both nationally and locally in the Northern Virginia real estate market—and why trying to “time the market” might cost you more than you think.

Home Prices Aren’t Falling—They’re Just Rising More Slowly

Many buyers are holding out for a major drop in home prices. But based on the latest data I’ve reviewed across multiple forecasting sources, that’s not what’s happening—and certainly not what I’m seeing across Northern Virginia.

Take a look at this chart showing projections from 8 top housing analysts:

As you can see, the average forecast shows a national home price increase of 1.6% in 2025. Some projections, like Fannie Mae’s, are as high as 4.1%—while a couple (Redfin and Zillow) anticipate modest declines. But even the most conservative forecasts don’t reflect anything near a crash.

📌 FHFA’s own data shows home prices have increased 55% nationally over the past five years. So even if certain submarkets cool slightly, overall equity remains strong.

What About Northern Virginia?

Locally, I’m not seeing price drops take hold in any meaningful way. In fact, many homes in Fairfax, Prince William, and Loudoun Counties are still receiving strong offers— some with multiple offers, especially if they’re priced well and move-in ready. While price growth may slow, buyers shouldn’t expect discounts. And sellers still have a strong opportunity if they position their home correctly.

Mortgage Rates: Don’t Wait for a Big Drop That May Not Come

Another trend I hear every week: “We’re waiting for rates to come down.” It’s understandable. But if you’re hoping for a big drop in interest rates this year, the data tells a different story.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to stay in the mid-6% range through mid-2026, according to Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Wells Fargo. The takeaway here? Rates are expected to ease slightly, but nothing drastic.

Even if we do see a minor rate improvement, waiting could mean paying more for the home itself if prices continue their upward trend. That’s why I tell my clients: focus on your monthly payment and your long-term equity, not just the rate.

📌 Explore projections from the Mortgage Bankers Association or see how Fannie Mae models rate expectations over time.

How to Make a Smart Move in This Market

Whether you’re buying, selling, or thinking about both, success in today’s market comes down to strategy—not speculation. Here’s my advice:

For Buyers:

• Get pre-approved now and understand your financial range with today’s rates.

• Focus on monthly affordability instead of hoping for the “perfect” moment.

• Partner with an agent who can help you move quickly when the right property hits the market.

For Sellers:

• Price competitively—homes still sell quickly when positioned right.

• Highlight upgrades and move-in-ready features; buyers are prioritizing turn-key condition.

• If you’re buying and selling at the same time, we’ll create a contingency plan to keep things smooth.

📌 Learn more about how to prepare your home for sale with this J Group Seller Guide

Final Thoughts: What This Means for Northern Virginia

The Northern Virginia market has always been resilient thanks to strong employment, proximity to D.C., and highly desirable communities. Right now, I’m seeing moderate competition return, especially in areas like Reston, Vienna, and McLean.

This isn’t a crash. It’s a market correction into balance—and that opens opportunities for buyers and sellers who work with an expert who understands both the data and the local dynamics.

📌 Curious about values in your neighborhood? Use this FHFA Home Price Index tool to compare zip codes—or better yet, let’s run a personalized report for your home.

Your Move

You don’t need to wait. You need a plan.

Home prices are expected to rise—just not as dramatically—and rates are likely to hover around where they are today. If you’re waiting for the perfect storm, it may never come. Instead, focus on what makes sense for your lifestyle and long-term goals.

Let’s build a custom strategy for your move right here in Northern Virginia—because the market doesn’t wait, and neither should you.