If you’re like some Northern Virginia homeowners or buyers, you’ve likely paused your real estate plans at some point thinking, “I’ll wait for the recession — that’s when I’ll get a deal.”

I’ve seen this pattern unfold before. As someone with over two decades of experience guiding buyers and sellers through every kind of market, I can tell you: recessions don’t play out the way most people expect — especially not in Northern Virginia.

Let’s unpack why waiting could cost you more in the long run.

What Happens Nationally During a Recession? Two Misconceptions

There are two widely held beliefs when it comes to recessions and real estate:

1. Mortgage rates fall

2. Home prices crash

Only one of those is typically true — and even that isn’t guaranteed.

Mortgage Rates Usually Fall

The Federal Reserve often lowers interest rates to stimulate economic activity during a downturn. That’s why in every one of the past six U.S. recessions, mortgage rates dropped — sometimes dramatically.

Take a look at this historical data:

As the graph shows, rates fell anywhere from 0.63% to 5.00%, making borrowing cheaper — and in theory, boosting affordability. This is one reason many prospective buyers feel a recession is a green light to make a move.

But Home Prices Rarely Crash

Here’s the myth-buster: while mortgage rates drop, home prices do not automatically follow.

Check out this graph showing home price changes during those same recessions:

As you can see, home prices increased in four of the last six recessions. The only significant drop occurred in 2008 — a result of a housing-specific financial crisis, not a typical recession. Here is a Business Insider article, Will Home Prices Drop In A Recession.

Northern Virginia Defies National Trends

Now let’s focus on the market my team and I know best: Northern Virginia.

Our region continues to show strength even in times of broader uncertainty. Demand remains high due to factors like:

• Job stability in the D.C. metro area

• Limited inventory

• Strong school districts and infrastructure

• High-income professionals moving into markets like Arlington, Vienna, and McLean

According to Redfin, many of our local zip codes are still seeing year-over-year price growth. In Fairfax and Loudoun counties, homes are still selling quickly, often with multiple offers — especially if they’re priced correctly and move-in ready.

The Real Risk of Waiting

Here’s the real danger in waiting for a recession to buy or sell:

• If rates drop, competition increases. More buyers re-enter the market, pushing prices up.

• If inventory stays tight, you’re facing a bidding war — not a bargain.

• If you're selling, you could miss the current buyer demand by holding out too long.

As I often tell clients: you can’t time the market perfectly — but you can time your move strategically.

My Expert Take: Move When the Market Serves You

Here’s the bottom line: Don’t wait for a media headline to tell you it’s time.

If you’re financially prepared to buy, or ready to move on from your current home, the best time is when it makes sense for your life. The market will reward decisiveness, preparation, and strategic action — not wishful thinking.

As I often say:

“The market serves you, not the other way around.” – Joey Remondino

Your Move:

Whether you’re a move-up buyer, a downsizer, or a first-time buyer trying to make sense of these headlines, let’s talk.

We’ll walk through what’s happening in today’s Northern Virginia market and build a plan that puts you in control — no matter what the broader economy decides.

📩 Contact me here or visit J Group Realty to get started.

Trying to decide if you should sell or rent out your home, here is a great article to help — https://www.jgrouprealty.com/blog/should-you-sell-your-northern-virginia-home-or-rent-it-out